The trials of forming govt. in Yemen
June 7, 2011 - 0:0
The departure of Yemeni dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh along with five high-ranking officials from Sana’a has created an opportunity for the people to form a democratic establishment in their country.
The Yemeni dictator was transported to Saudi Arabia for treatment after sustaining injuries in a mortar attack on the presidential palace.The explosion also severely wounded five other high-ranking officials including the prime minister, the deputy prime minister, the head of the parliament, and the governor of Sana'a.
Relocating Saleh to Saudi Arabia does not mean his 33-year-old dictatorship has come to an end; the people of Yemen have a long and complicated path ahead of them for the formation of a democratic parliament and establishment.
The existence of a security and political vacuum, the threat of al-Qaeda elements in the Zanzibar region, who are vying for control over the Bab al-Mandeb Straight, and separatist movements of the tribes of the south are all important factors that are seriously threatening Yemen.
The fact that Yemeni Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi has taken control of power currently in place of the Saleh has not helped the unstable situation of the country.
The tribal makeup of Yemen, the fact that the tribal leaders control a great deal of power, and Saudi Arabia's efforts to divide Yemen have all further complicated the country's situation.
The Hashed tribe lead by Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar has the highest degree of influence and power among the country's security and armed forces.
The leaders of this tribe, who've recently voiced their support of the people's revolution, have been a target of Ali Abdullah Saleh's presidential guards.
Saleh's reason for attacking the influential Hashed tribe was to create a divide among the tribes and to create a civil war which would lead to the division of the country.
Even at the end of his dictatorship Saleh has employed the tactic of chaos and has created an international problem out of the domestic problems of Yemen.
His efforts to create a tribal war in Yemen have been countered through the wisdom of the country's tribal leaders.
However, Saleh's escape to Saudi Arabia does not mean an end to the path and Yemen will face great domestic and foreign difficulties in resolving the problems.
From a domestic standpoint, the tension between the northern and southern tribes can pave the road for the partition of Yemen.
Southern Yemen, which was governed as an autonomous country up until 1990, suffers from deprivation in comparison to the north.
Therefore, the southern tribes are looking for an opportunity to go back to the era of self-rule.
On the other hand, the existence of light and semi-heavy arms in the hands of tribesmen has created a decentralized form of government in this severely impoverished Arab country.
So, desire for secession is heating up among tribes in South Yemen, which could trigger challenges in Yemen's new establishment in the future.
On the foreign front, Saudi Arabia's eying Yemeni soil and its efforts to influence Yemen's domestic developments have made the country run the risk of disintegration.
Riyadh is very sensitive about the north of Yemen due to the existence of the Houthi tribe along Saudi southwestern borders.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has serious misgivings over the formation of a democratic system in its southern neighbor as such a system will naturally leave its impact on the Saudi social fabric.
Saudi Arabia's fear of popular uprisings has led the country to use its two commando brigades to brutally crack down on popular protests in Bahrain.
Although Riyadh has spared no effort over the past two months to Keep Ali Abdullah Saleh in power, the swift popular movement has thwarted those attempts.
Saudi involvement in clamping down on protests staged by the Shia Houthi tribe in 2009 has had a negative impact on relations between the tribes of North Yemen and the Saudi regime.
That's why Riyadh is concerned lest the Houthi tribes opt to take out revenge against the Al Saud regime during the power transfer period.
Currently, a complex situation in playing out in Yemen, and if Yemeni people do not stick together, they will be in for violence.
Given that Yemen's vice president, who is currently at the helm of affairs, is outside the military, he might face a domestic military revolt.
Yemen's Armed Forces and Presidential Guards are mostly made up of Saleh's close associates who are opposed to any structural changes in the pyramid of power.
These factors delay the process of government formation in Yemen, and finally generals loyal to Saleh's regime will be encouraged to stage a military coup.
What guarantees the future of Yemen's political establishment is the prudence of tribal leaders and revolutionary youth in the country.
Yemeni people should not allow countries surrounding Yemen to meddle in their self-determination process during the power transition as the achievements of Yemenis could go to waste due to foreign interference.
(Source: Press TV)